PODGORICA — When Air Montenegro’s passenger planes took to the skies earlier this year, they were branded with a new slogan: “28 by 28 – The Next EU Member.”
The message sums up the tiny Balkan nation’s political ambition to become the 28th member of the European Union in 2028, and the first to join since Croatia in 2013.
Montenegro, with a population of just 630,000, would be easy to absorb into the EU, a bloc of 450 million people, and boost Brussels’ stuttering enlargement project ahead of much trickier candidates such as Ukraine.
However, a swift accession is by no means certain and 2028 is a highly ambitious target. The former Yugoslav republic must still pass tough reforms, including on tackling corruption. All 27 current EU states would have to ratify Montenegrin membership before it could join.
Still, Montenegro, once known for its warm ties with Russia, emerged as a frontrunner when the EU last month formed a group to draft its accession treaty.
On Friday, EU leaders will descend on the Adriatic resort of Tivat for a summit with Western Balkan counterparts in which they will discuss the country’s integration.
“Montenegro is the most advanced candidate country in the accession negotiations,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told Reuters.
“Strong leadership in the country has seen significant steps forward in terms of reforms, but there is still a lot of work to do. Some of the most pressing reforms are… on rule of law and the judiciary.”
From Russian friend to European ally
Montenegro has made big changes since it exited a state union with Serbia in 2006. Once heavily reliant on Russian cash, coastal real estate investment and tourists, Podgorica’s relations with Moscow have soured.
In 2016, Montenegrin authorities accused Moscow of plotting with a group of Serbian ultranationalists to stage a coup, a charge the Kremlin denies. Relations frayed further when Montenegro joined NATO in 2017. In 2022, Montenegro enforced sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine war and Moscow declared it an enemy state.
Milo Djukanovic, who led Montenegro for three decades until 2023 as prime minister or president, said the country’s split from Russia, a traditional Orthodox Christian and Slavic ally, marked a turning point.
“Our primary motive is to take control of our own future, which will be European and Euro-Atlantic,” he told Reuters.
Ordinary Montenegrins agree. In an April poll for the European Commission, more than 80% believed EU membership would be positive for the country – a stark contrast to many other parts of Europe, where euroskepticism is on the rise.
“We have a future in Europe, we should not remain a part of the Balkan quagmire,” said Novak, a 45-year-old physiotherapist from Podgorica, who declined to give his surname.
Tough reforms still needed
Montenegro has made progress. It has opened all 33 negotiating chapters and closed 14. In late 2025, it closed negotiations on agriculture and the free movement of capital.
Outstanding are the central chapters on the rule of law and fundamental rights. Under EU rules, no other chapters can be finalized until Montenegro fulfils the final benchmarks for these two areas.
Montenegro has launched an anti-corruption crackdown that led to high-profile arrests and convictions of several former top judges, prosecutors and police officials. But the number of convictions is low and analysts say problems persist.
Djukanovic and his Democratic Party of Socialists have faced accusations from critics and international watchdogs of state capture, corruption and ties with organized crime, which they deny. Media freedoms are also under threat, the watchdogs said.
“Montenegro is yet to close the chapters relating to the judiciary, which tend to be among the biggest hurdles for aspiring EU members,” said Mario Bikarski, senior Europe analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
“Even closer attention is likely to be given to these by the European Commission given the backsliding of several member states on the rule of law in recent years,” he said.
Predrag Zenovic, Montenegro’s chief EU negotiator, said he was confident the country would meet these demands in time.
“When the courts deliver a consolidated track record of results in… verdicts, that will be the final test,” he said. — Reuters
