SIX areas in Cebu and seven other areas in the country could be submerged by 2050 due to the continued rise in sea levels, an environmental group warns, as it urges the Philippine government to pass laws on nature-based solutions and future-proofing coastlines instead of those that could potentially increase the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, blamed for the warming that has accelerated the global rise in sea levels.
In September, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration or Pagasa said the sea level in the Philippine Sea had risen by about 12 centimeters, or about five inches, over the past two decades. This is much higher than the global average of 101.2 mm or four inches as of 2022.
Lawyer Rose-Liza Eisma-Osorio, vice president of Oceana Philippines, an ocean preservation group, said this is alarming and a relevant topic to discuss, as it could serve as an existential threat, especially to the country’s low-lying islands.
“This is an important issue to highlight because we are considered one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of climate change. One of these biggest threats is sea level rise. We need to recognize this existential threat, especially for low-lying islands, and implement urgent measures for climate adaptation,” Eisma-Osorio told SunStar Cebu on Oct. 14, 2023.
“Based on the 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC), global mean sea levels will most likely rise between 0.95 feet (0.29 meter) and 3.61 feet (1.1 meter) by the end of this century,” Eisma-Osorio said.
“These are the most dire sea level rise projections ever made by the IPCC if nothing changes in the way we behave or governments will not act. This may not sound too much, but that was four years ago, and as already noted, sea level rise is accelerating. As an archipelagic country, this will do more harm than good,” she warned.
Sea level rise is an increase in the world’s ocean level due to global warming effects, or the long-term heating of Earth’s surface due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth’s atmosphere.
The melting of glaciers and ice sheets due to warming, and the expansion of seawater as it warms, cause the sea levels to rise.
Dangerous gas
The primary greenhouse gas emitted as a result of human activities is carbon dioxide, according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil), solid waste, trees and other biological materials, and also as a result of some chemical reactions, such as cement production, the EPA said.
Another GHG is methane, emitted during the production and transport of fossil fuels, by the decay of organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills, and from livestock and other agricultural practices, the EPA said.
The EPA also cites nitrous oxide, emitted during agricultural, land use and industrial activities, and during wastewater treatment, as well as fluorinated gases emitted from household, commercial, and industrial applications and processes as greenhouse gases.
Pro GHG
Eisma-Osorio pointed to the country’s slow progress in curbing GHG and cutting down on the use of coal and fossil fuels as the primary factors in the Philippines’ rapid sea level growth.
Nikka Oquias, Oceana’s legal and policy specialist, said that aside from the continued support for non-renewable energy, the Senate had prioritized bills that could instead increase GHG emissions, such as proposals to boost the waste-to-energy (WTE) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industries.
WTE is used to describe various technologies that convert non-recyclable waste into usable forms of energy, including heat, fuels and electricity.
In May, the Senate passed on second reading Senate Bill 2267, which mandates establishing a national energy policy and regulating framework for facilities using WTE technologies.
The body also pushed for investments in the LNG industry, which it claimed was “good for the country’s national energy security,” at least in the short and medium term, noting that the output from the country’s only indigenous source of natural gas, the Malampaya gas field located off Palawan, had been decreasing over the past four years.
Cebu submerged
A study conducted by the New Jersey-based science organization Climate Central in 2019 identified eight areas in the Philippines — Roxas City, northwestern Metro Manila, parts of Bulacan, City of Manila, southwestern Metro Manila, Zamboanga City, Iloilo City and some parts of Cebu — that could be submerged by 2050 due to the continued rise in sea levels.
In Cebu, the organization pinpointed particularly Barangay Mabolo and the South Road Properties in Cebu City; Barangays Tipolo, Guizo and Opao in Mandaue City; and Tiangue Road in Lapu-Lapu City, among other areas.
The research also found that around 250 million people around the world currently live on land below current annual flood levels, and 110 million live below the high tide line.
A similar study by Tufts University in Massachusetts stated that the inundation from sea level rise would have significant consequences for the Philippines.
According to the study, the low estimate for sea level rise, one meter, would affect 7,000 square kilometers in 2,490 barangays, impacting an estimated 1.8 million people; the high estimate for sea level rise, two meters, would affect nearly 8,000 square kilometers in 2,730 barangays, impacting an estimated 2.3 million people; and catastrophic three-meter sea level rise would affect over 15,000 square kilometers in 5,387 barangays, and impact an estimated 3.4 million people.
Greenbelt zones
Eisma-Osorio said the government should encourage all national government agencies (NGAs) and local government units (LGUs) to prioritize investments in nature-based solutions instead of doing the opposite, such as cutting down trees to pave the way for more highways, and increasing the resiliency of coastal communities that are the most vulnerable in terms of the impacts of sea level rise, which is compounded by extreme storms and weather conditions.
Oquias emphasized the importance of establishing coastal greenbelts zones, or strips of mangroves and beach forest species fronting coastlines measuring 100 meters designed to mitigate the impacts of climate change, like sea level rise, among other environmental threats.
The greenbelt zones are intended to reduce energy from wind waves and swell waves by 13 to 66 percent to protect coastal communities from storm surges and flooding, a timely reminder ahead of the 10th anniversary of super typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) that killed 6,352 people and damaged or destroyed over one million homes in the country on Nov. 8, 2013.
Storm surges whipped by winds reaching 315 kilometers per hour caused most of the deaths.
“Oceana is pushing for the Coastal Greenbelt or Integrated Coastal Management Bill in Congress. It has been approved in the lower house, and we hope it will be passed by the Senate soon,” said Eisma-Osorio.
Storm surge
In a study conducted in 2009, researchers Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, Siobhan Murray and David Wheeler of the Center for Global Development said climate change would intensify storm surges elevated by a rising sea level as warmer oceans likely strengthen cyclone activity.
These storm surges created by large tropical cyclones can strike crowded coastal regions with devastating force and kill millions of people.
According to the United Nations, storm surges in 2009 brought by climate change killed over 80,000 people and affected the livelihoods of over seven million across the globe that year.
In Asia, the Philippines is among the vulnerable countries to storm surges because it is an archipelago.
Tragic proof of this is the five- to seven-meter storm surge that hit Samar and Leyte islands that killed thousands during the onslaught of super typhoon Yolanda.
68 vulnerable
Project Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Noah) of the Department of Science and Technology identified 68 areas in the Philippines vulnerable to a storm surge in 2013.
In Cebu, these include the towns of Alegria, Balamban, Bantayan, Daanbantayan, Ginatilan, Madridejos, Malabuyoc, Samboan and Santa Fe.
Former Pagasa director for the Visayas Oscar Tabada then advised Cebuanos not to be complacent, saying they recorded a storm surge during typhoon Ruping on Nov. 13, 1990, in Catmon, Danao City and Talisay City.
The 2023 Noah update showed that only Lapu-Lapu City had the risk of experiencing a storm surge at two percent or inundation of one meter, particularly within Barangays Cawhagan, Pangan-an, Sabang and San Vicente.
Not only Philippines
Marine Conservation Philippines program manager Soren Knudsen said the rise of sea levels is a global problem caused by increasing developments and urbanization, adding the world should invest massively in reforestation and rapidly progress towards nuclear power to defeat global warming.
“This too is the case for many heavily developed areas around the world. You see it in New York (NYC’s buildings collectively weigh 1.68 trillion pounds), and in Indonesia, they are already moving the capital from Jakarta because of the sinking of the land,” said Knudsen.
“Pinning the blame for climate change on the Philippine nation or any past or current actions or inactions would not be fair. We too are also to blame, obviously, but it is a global problem, not a local problem,” he explained.
Eisma-Osorio added the community could contribute to finding solutions, such as practicing energy conservation measures, supporting the government’s initiatives for renewable energy, or undertaking measures as simple as proper waste disposal and avoiding the use of single-use plastics.
“According to the Center for International Environmental Law, 99 percent of plastics are known to be made from chemicals sourced from fossil fuels. Simple acts like these can go a long way,” Eisma-Osorio said.
