A recent ambush that killed four government soldiers in Lanao del Norte has raised concerns about a potential resurgence of violent extremism in Mindanao, according to the non-government group Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA). The attack, which has been linked to Dawlah Islamiyah (DI), is seen as a sign of an escalating security threat in and around the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), despite years of counter-terrorism operations and peace-building efforts. Data from CCAA’s Critical Events Monitoring System shows a 91% increase in violent extremist incidents from 23 cases in 2024 to 44 in 2025, including armed encounters, arrests of suspected financiers and drug dealers, and the recovery of high-powered firearms and explosives. The group has observed sustained recruitment activity over the past two years, with indications that extremist groups are reestablishing a presence in parts of Lanao and Maguindanao. CCAA warns that the resurgence of extremist violence could destabilize fragile communities and erode gains made since the signing and implementation of the Bangsamoro peace agreement, and is calling for a broader “state and society” response that moves beyond a purely security-driven approach, including closer cooperation between national and local government agencies and civil society organizations, and sustained investment in community-based prevention efforts. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has vowed to intensify actions to neutralize the perpetrators of the ambush and ensure the safety and stability of the affected communities.
